Big question, “Will there be H1B Visa 2015 Lottery?”
Every year, since 2010, around the H1B season start time, I review all the past USCIS data, look at current trends, macro-economic factors and provide lottery predictions for H1B Visa filings for that fiscal year. It is hard to believe that I have been doing H1B predictions for the past 4 years and the predictions done have been very consistent with the actual results. This article will focus on H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Predictions based on real data!
Before we dive in to predictions, as a baseline, let’s look at the past USCIS data and US macroeconomic data.
USCIS H1B Visa Cap reach Dates by Year and US Economy Performance
As someone said “a picture is worth thousand words”, below is the graphical illustration of USCIS data plotted with the cap reach dates by year since 2000. If you look closely, as mentioned in the illustration, the H1B Visa cap reach dates is very much in-line with the performance of the US economy. If there were signs of recession, the H1B cap reach dates extends as far as October or even sometimes even to January as the case with FY 2011. As the US economy recovers from recession, the demand for H1B Visa workers increases as well, which is obvious by the H1B Cap reach dates moving close to April, as you can see for FY 2012 and 2013. Ultimately the H1B filing trend leads to a lottery as the demand exceeds the H1B cap numbers, which you can see for FY 2009, 2013.
H1B Visa 2015 Lottery Prediction Analysis
There are many factors that influence the H1B Workers demand, below are some of them that influence the H1B lottery possibility for FY 2015.
- Performance of US economy : US economy is doing fairly well, if you look at the below GDP growth rate, it looks good. It grew at 3.2% in Q4 of 2013. IMF raised GDP growth forecast of US to 2.8% for 2014, which is a good sign considering the original forecast. This is a positive sign for companies to forecast their growth and hire more people. It is good for H1B visa workers demand.
- Unemployment Rate in US : The unemployment rate is falling consistently as you can see in the below trend and currently stands at 6.6%. It means that there is more demand for workforce in USA and it implies that more demand for H1B workers as well.
- H1B Visa Applicants Not Selected in FY 2014 Lottery : USCIS received about 124,000 petitions for a total of 85,000 visas last year for FY 2014. You can expect a good amount of the 39,000 applicants, who were not selected in H1B 2014 lottery, to apply for this FY 2015 quota. This creates more supply of the H1B Visa petitioners for this year filing.
- Increased International Students: As you can see in below graph based on Institute of International Education Student Data , the International students enrolled in US schools increased consistently since 2009-10 academic year. There are much more number of students, who would potentially apply for H1B Visa to work in America.
- 17 month OPT extension Students: Apart from the regular Masters completed students, the STEM category students, who did not apply for H1B visa last year with 17 month OPT extension could also apply for H1B visa for this FY 2015 quota.
- H1B Rules Tightened, More RFEs, Fees Increased : Over the period of last three years, H1B rules are more stringent with Neufeld H1B visa memo introduced in Jan 2010 and H1B visa filing fee was raised by $2000 during recession, which is in effect until September 2014. Also, there have been good number of H1B RFEs and Rejectionsin the last few years for the applications that were not compliant with process. With theInfosys Visa Fraud and settlement of $34 Million late last year, USCIS will have more scrutiny on H1Bs filed by big MNCs. All of these discourage employees to file H1B Visa petitions, unless there is a compelling need for an employer to seek high skilled temporary worker on H1B visa.
- H1B Visa cap and Immigration Reform : There has been some discussion onImmigration reform and raising H1B cap to 110,000 for regular quota and masters quota to 25,000, but nothing has moved yet and we may have to live with existing cap. This does not help the increase in H1B Visa workers demand and only helps for lottery.
Now, the million dollar question
“Will there be H1B Lottery for 2015 Quota ? What is the Prediction ?”
Based on above data, despite the tightening of H1B Visa rules, with US economy doing fairly well, US unemployment rate decreasing , increase in international students seeking jobs both with masters and OPTs, and the unlucky applicants who were picked in H1B lottery last year, we will have Lottery for H1B Visa FY 2015 Quota. We could expect about 150K to 180 K petitions for this fiscal year. If you have not planned yet, check out the H1B Visa 2015 Plan and Steps, including article on How to find H1B Sponsors for FY 2015.
What is your speculation? Will we have H1B lottery for this year ?
How many petitions can we expect ?
Can an employee pay for the green card processing expenses?
ReplyDeleteThe U.S. Department of Labor requires that the employer pay for the PERM labor certification and related expenses. So, the employer must be paid for this part of the case. The USCIS does not have the same view, so the expenses of the I-140 and I-485 (legal fees, filing fees, costs) can be paid for by the individual or the employer or be shared, as they wish.
ReplyDeleteCan an H1B candidate take promotion and accept a job title change while waiting to file the I-485 ? Will this invalidate his/her approved Perm/I-140 ?
ReplyDeleteA promotion doesn't invalidate the PERM/I-140 automatically. But, the GC is based upon the job offer in the PERM. So, if there is a true change in the position that is not consistent with the PERM/I-140, this could pose a problem. The job offer must exist to file the I-485, so either the employer or the individual would have to be willing to change things back to the old job, or else a new PERM case would have to be initiated. In some cases, however, the changes in the job are small enough to fit within the position as described in the PERM.
ReplyDeleteI have an EAD and H1B status. What is the process to transfer my H1B to my new employer, so that I can keep my EAD, as well?
ReplyDeleteThe EAD is based on the pending I-485. It stays valid even if there is a job change using an H1B. What is important is to keep the entire GC case on solid footing. Normally, a job change indicates use of AC21 GC portability. We work on many such cases at the Murthy Law Firm - we suggest notifying the USCIS of the use of AC21 and making sure there is still a lawyer taking care of the case.
ReplyDeleteIs an H1B applied for in April 2014, to work at a nonprofit company, easily transferable to a for-profit company? Or must I wait to change jobs until October 2015?
ReplyDeleteFirst, it is important to understand whether the first case is for a cap-exempt employer; not all nonprofits are cap exempt. If the employer is not cap exempt (perhaps, that is why they are filing in April), there is no issue. If the employer IS cap exempt, and you have not previously been counted against the cap, then the cap is an issue if trying to change to cap subject. It would be best to set a consultation - there is a loophole that may help.
ReplyDeleteI worked on post-completion OPT for one year after I completed my master’s degree. I then decided to continue my education and went to law school. I have now graduated with a J.D. degree and would like to get some practical experience working in a law office. Am I eligible for a second one-year period of OPT?
ReplyDeleteAccording to the general OPT rule, a student becomes eligible for a new 12-month OPT period based upon completion of a subsequent degree at a higher educational level. But, in some cases, such as yours, it is not entirely clear if the subsequent degree is to be considered a higher educational level. You should be ready to provide a reasonable basis to the USCIS for a conclusion that your J.D. degree is at a higher educational level than your master's degree. The USCIS will make its decision based on a comparison between the specific requirements of both of your degrees.
ReplyDeleteIf a person held H-1 previously and changed the status to F-1, will s/he be still counted against the cap this year? Can s/he apply for H-1 later (change of status) before expiring the current status?
ReplyDeleteGenerally, if a person previously held cap-subject H1B status, s/he would not be cap subject if filing for the remainder of the unused H1B time in the initial six-year period. The change of status to F-1 (or other nonimmigrant status, like H-4) does not make the person subject to the cap again. If one held H1B status previously and did not use the full six years permitted, s/he is usually eligible to change back to H-1 without having to be counted against the cap again.
ReplyDeleteDoes a change in the job title under same job classification e.g. LCA job code Computer System Analyst (151051) to Software Developer (151133) require an H1B amendment? Added responsibilities are not documented in current H1B LCA.
ReplyDeleteA job title change alone would not require an H1B amendment, but a material change in the job duties DOES require an amendment. The LCA does not list duties, only location, title/classification, wage level and the like. The specific job duties are specified in the H1B petition. In the example given, it appears that the title change is tied to a change in the actual job duties. If so, an amendment would likely be needed.
ReplyDeleteMy perm was applied for 365 days prior to my H1B expiration. While applying for H1B extension, can I add any unused H1B time (5 months), in addition to the one-year H1B extension?
ReplyDeleteYes, it is almost always possible to add in all available time for which one is eligible when filing an H1B petition (up to the 3-year maximum). So, if a person is eligible for an extension of one year because of a PERM filing, the employer can also ask for any available recapture time. Thus, in this example, the employer would request a validity of 1 year and 5 months. It usually makes far more sense to ask for the additional time, as the cost is the same whether it is a 1-year request or a 1-year-and-5-month petition duration request.
ReplyDeleteHow can we change employers while in H-1 status, while maintaining the EAD/AP ?
ReplyDeleteIf a person is maintaining H-1 status, while also having an I-485/EAD/AP, s/he CAN change jobs on H-1. It is just like any other H1B filing through a new employer. The GC case can continue in parallel if the new job qualifies under AC21 as being in the same or similar job classification. People often misunderstand the AC21 green card job flexibility provisions and think that it is necessary to work on the EAD in order to take advantage of that option. That is not the case, if a green card case meets the AC21 requirements, the work can be performed either on an EAD or an H-1.
ReplyDeleteMy OPT ended last month, on February 1st. I have decided to apply for transfer to a new program of study, which starts in August this year. What are the timelines that I need to be aware of in order to have my SEVIS record transferred?
ReplyDeleteUnder the regulation, "[i]n the case of an F-1 student authorized to engage in post-completion optional practical training (OPT), the student must be able resume classes within 5 months of transferring out of the school that recommended OPT or the date the OPT authorization ends, whichever is earlier." Based on this rule, your new program of study should start no later than 5 months from the date your OPT authorization expired, which would be July 1. In addition, you should complete your transfer no later than the expiration of your 60-day grace period which started on February 2, the day after your OPT expired. While it does not appear that you would be eligible to transfer to the program of study that starts in August, you may be able to transfer to another program that starts before July 1.
ReplyDeleteI graduated with a Master of Economics degree last year and am currently working on OPT. The CIP code for my major is not designated as a STEM degree, but I took as many courses in math as students in the mathematics program of study. Can I apply for a STEM OPT extension?
ReplyDeleteNo. Unfortunately, even if you had two majors, one of which was designated as a STEM degree, but the initial OPT was based on a non-STEM degree, you would still not be eligible for the STEM extension. According to SEVP policy guidance, "[i]f a student has a double major and obtained regular post-completion OPT on the non-STEM CIP or a STEM CIP that is not approved by DHS, the student is ineligible for the 17-month extensions."
ReplyDeleteIf, as an H-4 holder, I apply for J-1 from within the USA, and it is rejected, will I end up losing my H-4 status, also? Is J-1 to F-1 transfer possible from U.S. itself, or do I have to apply from India?
ReplyDeleteIf a person applies for a change of status in the U.S. and it is denied, s/he generally would still keep the existing nonimmigrant status. This presumes that the person continues to qualify for, and comply with, the terms of the status that s/he is trying to change - in this case - the H-4. As long as the denial is not due to a status violation, fraud, etc, the H-4 status would remain valid, even if the J-1 COS did not work. It is possible to change from J-1 to F-1 in the U.S., provided that the J-1 is not subject to the two-year, home return requirement (HRR). If the HRR applies, then it is necessary to process for the F-1 visa at the consulate.
ReplyDeleteWould I be able to apply for recaptured time as part of an H-1 transfer? Will the NIV date be updated during the H-1 transfer?
ReplyDeleteIt is possible to ask for additional H1B time, based upon recapture, whenever one's employer (or new employer) files the H1B petition. The expiration date on the nonimmigrant visa would not be changed as part of the H1B petition filing. The foil (commonly, "stamp") is issued by the U.S. consulate; the H1B petition is filed with the USCIS. These are parts of different governmental departments. The visa can only be issued at the U.S. consulate abroad.
ReplyDeleteMy mom came to the U.S. on a B-2 visa on 04.Sep.2013. We applied for her I-130 and I-485 concurrently on 14.Dec. Fingerprinting is done. Her I-94 is expiring 04.Mar.2014. Do we need to apply for extension of stay (I-539), as we are waiting for I-485 interview?
ReplyDeleteIndividuals with properly filed I-485s are considered to be in a period of authorized stay in the U.S. Thus, there is no requirement to keep the nonimmigrant status. Moreover, in this example, there is a conflict between any claim to be a visitor and the filing of the I-485. The B extension, which is for a person who is planning to stay for a while and leave the U.S., would not be appropriate for a person who was trying to get a GC. I will note that a person who comes as a tourist and then, shortly thereafter, files the I-130/I-485 to stay in the U.S. may face some serious questioning by the USCIS at the adjustment interview.
ReplyDeleteIf my end client refuses to give a letter, what is the risk for me to get an H1B in this cap season?
ReplyDeleteThe end client's refusal to give the letter makes the H1B case more difficult. We DO successfully file H1B cases for consultants using other proof of the end-client project - contracts, SOWs, purchase orders, etc. And, if there is enough other proof of what the individual is doing, the case has a fairly good chance of approval. But it is much easier if the end client provides a letter confirming the nature of the work, duration, and other key factors.
ReplyDeleteI am currently working on OPT that will expire next week. I am eligible for the OPT extension based on a STEM degree. When should I file my OPT STEM extension application? Can I still do it within the 60-day grace period upon the expiration of my initial OPT?
ReplyDeleteNo. While it is true that you should be in valid status during the 60-day grace period upon the expiration of your initial OPT employment authorization, a timely filed STEM extension application has to be filed (i.e. received by USCIS) prior to the expiration of your initial period of OPT.
ReplyDeleteI am a public school teacher in my 6th year. My H1B is expiring May 2, 2014. My district did PWD and is going to file PERM in two weeks. Is that late?
ReplyDeleteTo be really safe to legally remain on H1B status, without interruption, the PERM case should have been started much earlier. Ideally, the employer should have taken steps to file the PERM at least 365 days before the H1B six-year expiration point. Since it is already Feb 2014, is too late for the 365-day option. As it stands, unless the PERM is approved in April, so that the I-140 can be filed and approved before May, the H1B six-year limit will be reached without a way to immediately extend. This assumes there is no recapture time available to extend the H1B beyond May 2014. Plans should be made either to depart the U.S. or to remain in an alternative status. In this situation, a consultation with an attorney to discuss options and timeframes for becoming eligible for more H1B time would be helpful. This is a good example of why the GC must be filed well before the end of the six years of H1B time.
ReplyDeleteI applied for H1B in 2007 and switched to H-4 in 2009. Is it possible to renew the same H1B now? Also, my husband has applied for GC and has cleared I-140. Does this help?
ReplyDeleteA person who had an H1B petition approval in 2007, but did not use all the six years of time, should be able to have an employer file a new H1B case and not have to be counted against the H1B cap or have to worry about the H1B lottery. There is a technical issue on the timing of the initial H1B approval, but it is rare for that to cause complications. The spouse having filed a GC and obtaining the I-140 approval will help the principal GC applicant to obtain H1B extensions on the basis of the I-140 approval. Family members generally cannot enjoy the benefit of the I-140 approval to obtain H1B extensions of status on that basis.
ReplyDeleteCan you file H1B extension after its expiry? Can you file H1B if PERM is in process and you are outside U.S.?
ReplyDeleteAn employer can file an H1B petition for an individual who is outside of the U.S. Such cases are filed for consular processing, not as an extension of status. These cases can be filed as long as the person is eligible for more H1B time. Generally, under the current USCIS policy guidance it is possible to file an H1B based upon having filed the PERM at least 365 days earlier, and is safest if at least a few days were kept aside from the initial six year H1B period. On the other hand, once the I-140 petition is approved, then the H1B can be approved for 3 years even if no H1B time was kept aside to file the Extension of status on H1B.
ReplyDeleteI have an EAD with my employment-based GC processing, can I work two jobs on the EAD?
ReplyDeleteCongratulations on reaching the stage when your priority date is current, allowing you to file the I-485 and obtain an EAD. The EAD provides unrestricted employment authorization. Hence, a person is allowed to do two (or more) jobs with the EAD. However, in order to obtain approval of the GC properly, there must continue to be a proper job offer either from the original GC sponsoring employer or, in the case of AC21 eligibility, through a new position that is in the same/similar job classification as the position set out in the PERM and I-140 petition.
ReplyDeleteI timely filed an application for OPT extension based on a STEM degree. Unfortunately, my application was denied because my employer gave me an incorrect E-Verify number. …
ReplyDelete... I would like to challenge the denial by filing a motion to reopen or reconsider this decision, but I am very concerned that I will be staying in the U.S. without lawful status now, that my STEM OPT was denied. Can I transfer to a different school or change to a different status while I wait for the decision on my motion to avoid being out of status?
If your initial OPT period and a 60-day grace period have already expired, and your STEM OPT extension request was denied with a finding of violation of status, you may not only be out of lawful status but also accruing unlawful presence in the United States. You are correct that a filing of a motion neither puts you in lawful status nor gives you permission to remain in the U.S. However, if the motion is granted and the underlying case (i.e. the STEM OPT application) is reopened, it has a retroactive effect resulting in no break in lawful presence in the U.S.
ReplyDeleteIt is your decision whether you would like to wait in the U.S. for the decision on your motion or leave the U.S. If you decide to change your status or transfer to another program of study (provided you are still in valid F-1 status when you initiate such a request), however, you will forfeit your claim to the STEM extension as you would no longer be eligible for it and your motion will be moot.
I was working in H1B status for Company A. Company B then filed a petition on my behalf and I started to work for them. I would now like to return to Company A. In order to return to that employer, does Company A need to file a new petition for me?
ReplyDeleteIf Company A has not withdrawn the H1B petition that it filed on your behalf, and you have been maintaining valid H1B status, you should be able to return to that previous employer based on the still-valid petition.
ReplyDeleteIn order to get my H1B transferred in March 2014, are the paystubs from December 2013 and January 2014 enough?
ReplyDeleteThe USCIS wants to see that you are maintaining valid nonimmigrant status at the time of filing the H1B transfer. Generally, the most recent 2 to 3 months of pay stubs are sufficient. However, the USCIS can request additional documentation to see that you have been maintaining valid H1B status throughout your employment.
ReplyDeleteI am certain that I will return to India this year without completing the green card process. Do I need to withdraw the application? What are the implications of this? Will I have issues coming to U.S. on a nonimmigrant visa in future?
ReplyDeleteIf you are planning to abandon the permanent resident process, it may be wise to withdraw the I-485 application; that way you will have a better chance of obtaining a nonimmigrant intent visa (e.g., B-1/B-2, F-1) in the future. Before making a decision about withdrawing a pending I-485 application, it would be wise to consult with an attorney as, once a withdrawal request is made, it cannot be taken back.
ReplyDeleteMy wife is a green card holder, but she has been in India for more than two years due to a medical emergency. She did not apply for a reentry permit before she left the U.S. What is the procedure for bringing her back to the U.S.?
ReplyDeleteDepending upon the specific situation, a green card holder who has been outside of the U.S. for more than one year without first applying for a reentry permit, may be able to obtain an SB-1 Returning Resident visa. It would be wise to consult with an attorney to discuss the specific situation to see if her situation qualifies for a returning resident visa. Keep in mind that the consulates in India (as well as certain other countries) are applying this category very narrowly.
ReplyDeleteI have an approved I-140. I was born in India and my spouse was born in UAE (Dubai). Is it true that I can file under cross-chargeability?
ReplyDeleteIf your spouse was born in UAE, you can be cross-charged to that country instead of India. In other words, your pending green card case can be counted under your spouse's country of birth rather than your own.
ReplyDeleteI have an EAD based on my pending I-485. I am a full-time, W-2 employee with the company sponsoring my I-485 position. Am I allowed to also work as a 1099 independent contractor on the weekends?
ReplyDeleteIf you are working based on an approved EAD, you are able to work multiple jobs as either a direct employee or independent contractor. You are even eligible to start your own business. However, keep in mind that, if you are the principal applicant on an employment-based case, you need to continue to have an offer for a full-time, permanent position with a direct employer as long as your I-485 remains pending.
ReplyDeleteI am on H1B and recently changed to a new employer. My spouse has an H-4 visa that was issued under my previous employer’s name. She plans on entering the United States later this month; does she first need to apply for a new H-4 visa?
ReplyDeleteIf you are maintaining valid H1B status, your spouse should be able to use her existing H-4 visa, even though it references your old employer. Your spouse should carry a copy of your new H1B approval with her when she travels so that the CBP officer at the port of entry will give her an I-94 expiration to match your own.
ReplyDeleteI have an approved I-140, an approved EAD, and my I-485 is pending. If I marry someone from India, would she be eligible to apply for a green card as my spouse based on my pending I-485?
ReplyDeleteAs long as your marriage takes place prior to the approval of your I-485 application, your spouse should be eligible to obtain permanent residence as your derivative beneficiary. Keep in mind that, in order for your new bride to come to the United States in H-4 status, you would need to maintain valid H1B status while your I-485 is pending. If you are working on your EAD and are no longer in H1B status, your spouse may need to have her own independent nonimmigrant status in order to enter the U.S. If your spouse is unable to travel to the U.S., she would have to process her immigrant visa through consular processing.
ReplyDeleteI have two masters’ degrees from U.S. universities. Because my degrees are at the same education level, I have split the one-year OPT period between my degrees. …
ReplyDelete... When I finished my first master's program, I applied for and received authorization for a 6-month OPT period. Now, that I've finished my second master's program, I have applied for the remaining 6-month of OPT. During my first OPT period, I was unemployed for 70 days. Do I have only 20 days of possible unemployment left during my second OPT period? How does the 90-day maximum unemployment rule apply in my situation?
When the OPT period is split between two programs at the same education level, the student has 90 days of maximum unemployment during each of the OPT periods. Therefore, you have a new full 90-day period that you can be unemployed during your second OPT.
ReplyDelete